Over the past few years Guillermo, Matt and I have been insufferable members of the corner of finance twitter talking up reduced labor slack, wage growth, reversals in long-term inequality trends, and higher inflation.

Between the October jobs report, the excellent WSJ demographics series, and 2016 Wall Street forecasts, these views are increasingly catching on. We believe these are long-term trends, so it’s not time to declare victory and move on, but I don’t find it particularly interesting to tweet about well-understood long-term trends, so I’ve begun the process of thinking about what other emerging under-recognized trends and themes could be. If too many people are agreeing with you it’s a sign that maybe your ideas have gotten a little stale.

Here are some of the things I’m thinking about:

End of the tech startup era, beginning of the hegemonic tech platform era. There’s a belief that we’re in an amazing era of disruption where a few people can do a weekend hackathon, get funding, and bring an incumbent to its knees. What if that’s over and instead we’re living in a world where Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Netflix become the new age versions of AT&T, IBM, Wal-Mart, and the cable companies? The last useful app I added to my phone was Uber. There are cycles for everything and it’s not clear why this era of tech startups/unicorns will last forever.

Tech hegemons spending more and more of their money on content creation rather than innovation. This is Adam Carstens’s idea – now that the number of tech platforms that matters has been established, they’ll spend more and more money incentivizing content creators and consumers to use it at the expense of others.

Knock-on effects of higher defense spending. Defense spending has been falling for around 5 years now, but with the rise of ISIS and changes in the political mood post-Paris, it seems probable that whether Hillary or a Republican is elected, defense spending is going up in 2017. What sorts of unexpected side effects will that have on employment, wage growth, inflation, where the growth happens, crowding out, politics, etc?

A comeback for conservative values in mainstream culture. This will be the point easiest to misunderstand so let me say that I don’t mean we’ll fall in love with Rush Limbaugh or Trumpism or anything. Values migrate from art to culture to politics/activism. Brokeback Mountain released in 2005 can be an Oscar nominee. Brokeback Mountain in 2011 becomes too overtly political. Just about every liberal (and conservative for that matter) cultural issue has been politicized at this point, so it’s becoming harder and harder to produce them in a mainstream content way (comedians complain about this). But culture never ends and is never finished. Maybe we’ll see more portrayals of nostalgia (inherently conservative), or depictions of marriage, family, fidelity, wholesomeness, self-determination and struggle in a positive light. An interesting way to do this would be to reboot mid-20th century concepts with a female/non-white lead, a way to make inherently “conservative white nostalgia” stories seem modern and progressive.

A constant reevaluation of where the areas of abundance and shortage are in the economy and society. When Baby Boomers were starting families labor and road infrastructure was abundant while housing, capital, and commodities were scarce. So the economy and politics were understandably directed towards the production of housing and capital at the expense of workers and infrastructure. With Millennials now in their “late 1970′s/early 1980′s moment,” tech/communications, capital, increasingly energy/commodities are abundant while housing, labor, infrastructure, and political will are scarce. The economy and political system are constantly looking for ways to use areas of abundance to solve problems of shortages, and somehow these factors will all interact to create solutions.

The potential for an unprecedented GOP majority in 2017. There’s no question that the GOP presidential field looks shaky, with the public’s obsession on every cringe moment by Trump. But the fact remains that outside of the presidency and large city mayorships the Republican Party has unprecedented control over American politics. And the Democratic bench after two Obama terms is weak, and likely won’t improve until after a presidential loss and/or the retirement of its current generation of gray leaders. If Republicans win a close presidential election in 2016 they’ll have full control over the federal government and a large number of states as well. There’s at least a 40-45% chance of this outcome yet surprisingly little thought about what it would mean.