As someone who began managing client money 3 years ago, this is the first teeth-chattering panic I’ve felt in markets. There have been other blips – the Ebola low in October, 2014 or the margin call crash last August, but in terms of sustained liquidation of assets this is the worst.
Managing client money brings up different issues and emotions than managing your own. The two questions you have to ask yourself are, “Am I managing risk in accordance to the stated goals and tolerances of clients?” and “If things go bad or I’m wrong, am I comfortable explaining to clients what happened?”
These are the questions that dictate decision-making. My process is a combination of tops-down business cycle analysis and bottoms-up fundamental/valuation analysis. I used to be entirely tops-down/macro in nature, which kept my bearish way too long in 2009 because I didn’t know how to value companies.
What has made the current crash so difficult is when I survey the environment I see the following:
-US econ data points coming in more or less in accordance with my expectations
-The beginning of earnings season looking more or less okay (banks, NFLX, a few others)
-Monetary policy that remains accommodative
-Valuations, at least for names and sectors that interest me, that I’m comfortable with
-Still at the point in the business cycle, especially on the housing side, where a consumer/housing-led expansion could continue for years to come
At the same time I get why there’s panic out there:
-The China/oil/high yield interdependence is creating a lot of fear and confusion, and possibly more systemic damage to credit markets and banks than I’ve priced in
-Selling in some areas, like mREITS, that’s far beyond what most people had in their risk models. When you think something’s worth $1 and you can pay 80c for it you think it’s cheap. When it goes from 80c to 50c there’s a combination of “wow, I should really buy more!” and “holy crap what if I’m wrong?”
-The selling has been so indiscriminate that you could’ve come into the year with what you thought was a value portfolio. When you’re down 10% in less than 3 weeks you get more and more nervous about allocating that marginal dollar.
-If corporate credit markets keep deteriorating, then even if I’m right about the earnings on the companies I follow, valuations should adjust downward accordingly.
I’m of the belief that you can chase other people’s ideas, but it’s chasing their process that is the path to ruin. In times like this I wish I were a global macro energy trader who did all sorts of fancy stuff and was up 2-3% for the year, but that’s not who I am or what I do. Times like this force you to think about, “Who am I and what am I trying to accomplish?” It’s necessary at times but not a fun process to go through.
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